As Ukraine’s war with Russia drags through its third year, hopes for a negotiated peace remain elusive. The recent Istanbul summit, billed as a potential diplomatic breakthrough, fell flat before it began. With Russian President Vladimir Putin announcing on the eleventh hour that he would skip the talks, expectations quickly gave way to frustration. US President Donald Trump’s absence also underscored the persistent stalemate — with his caveat that Putin would like him to broker the talks pointing to the reality that without direct engagement from top powerbrokers, peace remains out of reach.

A Frozen Front, A Shifting War

On the battlefield, the war has settled into a grim pattern of attritional fighting. Russia recently claimed modest gains in the Donetsk region, including the villages of Torskoye and Novooleksandrivka. Ukrainian forces have held their own elsewhere, particularly near Pokrovsk, but momentum is hard to sustain. Frontlines have stabilised in many areas, with heavy casualties and slow-moving offensives defining the current phase.

Despite repeated calls for a ceasefire, neither side appears ready to step back. Russia continues to frame its campaign as a long-term struggle against Western encroachment. Ukraine, meanwhile, remains defiant — insisting that territorial concessions are not on the table.

Istanbul Talks: A Stage Without Main Actors

This month’s Istanbul peace summit, convened by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, was the first direct meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegations since 2022. Hopes briefly flickered that a framework for talks could be revived. But those hopes were dashed when it became clear that neither Putin nor Trump would attend.

Russia sent a lower-level delegation led by former culture minister Vladimir Medinsky—a figure widely seen as lacking real decision-making authority. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who had agreed to attend in good faith, ultimately walked out, denouncing the Russian team as “dummy.” His message was clear: unless those with real power are at the table, the process is meaningless.

Western reactions echoed Zelenskyy’s frustration. Czech President, Jan Lipavsky, called Putin’s absence and his decision to send his aide a “sign of cowardice,” and the UK Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, has promised to update allies on UK steps to “force Putin’s hand”. While Putin has opted out of a trip to Türkiye, Britain and the NATO allies flew in, to work to “step up” their collective security at the informal meeting of NATO in Antalya.

Putin: Where art thou?

So why didn’t Putin show? The Kremlin offered no clear explanation, but sources close to the Russian leadership suggested the talks were viewed as a “Western trap” — a performance aimed at pressuring Moscow without offering security guarantees. Putin likely saw no benefit in appearing at a summit where he could be portrayed as intransigent or pressured into concessions.

Publicly, Russian officials attacked the West for a wave of hysteria, dismissed the Istanbul initiative as a “show” and hinted that the real negotiating table would only be set when Russia’s strategic objectives—however loosely defined—were closer to being met.

Trump’s Calculus: Optics and Leverage

For his part, President Donald Trump—currently on a diplomatic tour of the Middle East—made it clear he saw little value in Istanbul either. Speaking from Air Force One, Trump remarked: “Nothing is gonna happen until Putin and I get together.”

That comment reflects Trump’s long-held belief that he alone can broker a deal between Kyiv and Moscow, bypassing what he sees as ineffective multilateral diplomacy. His foreign policy chief, Marco Rubio, was also quick to echo this sentiment from Antalya, saying there would be no breakthrough until Trump and Putin meet face-to-face.

Some may further describe this as posturing. Indeed, it was Trump’s original plan to negotiate with Putin first, before bringing the others. Yet for others, while Trump’s comments again suggest he is positioning himself as the eventual dealmaker, this should not worry the West. As veteran US diplomat Jack Matlock Jr has put it, “reestablishment of direct communication between the Russian and American presidents is an essential precondition for any settlement” and would be a welcome process that Americans and Europeans should support. Others too feel that Trump could drive a hard bargain with Putin if he so wishes to. When Trump initially tried to push Putin toward negotiations, he threatened Russia with tariffs and sanctions. He warned, “We can do it the easy way, or the hard way… It’s time to ‘MAKE A DEAL.” And having missed the chance to broker the “deal of the century” for Middle East peace during his first term, achieving peace in Ukraine would be a much-welcome bolster for his bid for the Nobel Peace Prize he deeply desires.

But Trump’s previous actions and remarks from his team point to a potential danger that keeps policymakers in Europe awake at night: him getting tired of Ukraine, and giving too much away. While Russia remains hurt by sanctions, Putin remains defiant and keen to play the long game. And by doing so he hopes to either wear the US our or better still, forces it to walk away completely — an outcome that seemed extremely likely during the ugly verbal brawl in the Oval Office between Zelenskyy, Trump and US Vice President JD Vance earlier this year. Though tensions have eased since then and everyone ― including European leaders — are trying not to antagonise the mercurial US president, the question remains whether Trump will tire of all this.

For the time being, both scenarios remain on the table. For Trump, Ukraine has always been, for Trump, just one piece of a bigger diplomatic game aimed at resetting relations between Washington and Moscow — and it is in that context that the real estate mogul in him first shone through, a master of the hard sell. So far, it’s Kyiv and Europe that have borne the brunt of that approach. But Putin, who has largely avoided Trump’s pressure tactics, may find his latest gamble has changed that. Will it soon be his turn to face the hard sell?

We shall soon find out.

Postscript: Meanwhile, Türkiye’s role in hosting talks — and the way it’s balanced both sides throughout the war — is a story in itself. More on that in another blog.