States Negotiate. Non-State Actors Influence: Vanuatu and the Power of Climate Agency

Yazar: Deniz Ozturk - 06 Kasım 2026

The global climate agenda is shaped by more than negotiations between states. Students, civil society organisations, researchers, businesses and financial institutions can influence priorities, mobilise partnerships and help translate commitments into action. Vanuatu is an archipelagic nation of roughly 83 inhabited and uninhabited volcanic islands located in the Melanesia region of the South Pacific Ocean, facing significant climate risks. This resilient country also illustrates how actors beyond traditional centres of power can shape international policy.

In 2019, 27 law students from eight Pacific Island countries at the University of the South Pacific helped establish Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Change (PISFCC). Their campaign sought an advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on states’ obligations concerning climate change. What began as a student-led initiative developed into an international campaign supported by Vanuatu and a coalition of states.

The United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and regional bodies in Oceania state that climate change acts as a “threat multiplier”, worsening existing vulnerabilities and aggravating already fragile situations. Across Pacific island countries, sea-level rise, coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion and extreme weather threaten communities, livelihoods and essential infrastructure. These pressures can undermine food and water security, intensify displacement and deepen inequalities. Climate change does not automatically cause conflict, but it can compound security risks. Adaptation, disaster preparedness and resilient recovery are therefore essential to protecting human security, social cohesion and peace.

From Vulnerability to International Legal Action

In March 2023, the UN General Assembly requested an ICJ advisory opinion on states’ obligations in respect of climate change. In July 2025, the Court delivered its opinion, clarifying relevant obligations under international law.

This Non-State Actor (NSA) centered achievement illustrates climate agency: the capacity to mobilise partners and influence international agendas rather than simply respond to climate impacts. It also demonstrates how youth advocacy and civil society mobilisation can help move an issue from public campaigning into international legal institutions. States retain their legal responsibilities, but the process shows how Non-state Actors can shape the questions governments consider in their decision and policy-making process and the institutions through which those questions are addressed resulting in policy outcomes.

Transition Does Not Eliminate Vulnerability

The United Nations assesses Least Developed Countries (LDCs) using three criteria: gross national income (GNI) per capita, the Human Assets Index (HAI), and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI). These indicators help assess development progress and structural vulnerability, but no single measure fully captures a country’s capacity to withstand future shocks.

Vanuatu transitioned out of the LDC category in December 2020 after meeting the relevant income and human-assets criteria. Its transition represented development progress, but did not remove its exposure to economic and environmental shocks. Transition out of the LDC category does not guarantee lasting development resilience, particularly where climate-related disasters can damage infrastructure, disrupt livelihoods and place additional pressure on public finances. Access to some forms of development assistance may also change as a country moves beyond LDC status.

Though the term “graduation” remains the official UN term for the formal change in LDC status; “transition” seems more useful when discussing the broader development process and the continuing need to build resilience. Personally, I think this distinction matters.

Furthermore, meeting eligibility transition criteria is an important milestone. However, it is not proof that vulnerabilities have been overcome.

Vanuatu’s exposure is not theoretical. Tropical cyclones, drought, heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides have repeatedly disrupted communities, infrastructure and livelihoods. Cyclone Pam in 2015 caused estimated losses and damage equivalent to around 64% of GDP, while Cyclone Harold affected approximately 129,000 people in 2020. In 2023, cyclones Judy and Kevin struck in March, followed by Cyclone Lola in October. These examples illustrate recurring shocks and high environmental vulnerability that have significant socio-economic impacts.

As I write this article from the beautiful island of Cyprus, I ask myself whether island communities so culturally, linguistically and geographically different from one another share commonalities, if any, on building resiliency?

When in doubt, reach out to relevant issue area experts - so I reached out to Asst. Prof. Dr. Abraham Deka, an Environmental and Development Economist at Near East University who contributes to and impacts fields spanning environmental science, energy economics, and sustainable development.

In a brain-picking session, I asked Dr. Deka whether he thinks Cyprus can learn from Vanuatu, if at all, from an empirical perspective and here is what he had to say:

“Cyprus can learn from Vanuatu's progress in development by putting human capital (knowledge) and governance at the centre of its developmental strategies. As highlighted in the endogenous growth theories, knowledge plays a very significant role for persistent growth and sustained economic growth. The influence of human capital on economic development is two-fold:

First, it acts as a fundamental factor of production in the production of goods and services, thereby raising economic growth and improving the living standards of people. Second, knowledge has multiplied effects in the generation of new knowledge. This is explained by the learning by doing hypothesis or its extended version, learning and inventing by inventing and doing and the knowledge spillover hypothesis. This leads to capital accumulation as individuals continue in improving their knowledge levels through working on new projects and bringing new ideas that can improve the production processes. Moreover, working together with others ensures a spillover effect of knowledge from one person to the other. Given the concept of knowledge spillover, cooperation among countries becomes essential for economic development, through knowledge transfers.

Institutions are also essential in devising frameworks that lead to sustainable development and also enforcing them. Therefore, Cyprus can apply policy engagement actions similar to Vanuatu."

Dr. Deka’s observations point to a broader international political economy question: how can international cooperation, institutional capacity and knowledge transfer translate development gains into greater resilience? This is particularly relevant for geographically isolated island economies, where structural vulnerabilities, limited domestic resources and geographical constraints make sustained international dialogue, policy engagement and partnerships especially important.

Partnerships and the Challenge of Implementation

International partnerships can help countries strengthen resilience, infrastructure, public services and institutional capacity. Australia is Vanuatu’s largest bilateral development partner. Its estimated official development assistance to Vanuatu was A$85.6 million in 2025–26, supporting areas including governance, health, education, infrastructure, climate resilience and recovery.
Official development assistance (ODA) is a defined category of development finance; not all international financial flows qualify as ODA. Beyond the volume of funding, the effectiveness of partnerships depends on whether resources are accessible, coordinated and aligned with national priorities.

Bi-lateral and multi-later partnerships - matter not only because they provide funding, but because they strengthen local capabilities and support national priorities.

The global climate agenda also creates opportunities for countries and communities that may be politically, geographically or economically isolated to share experience, amplify their voices and actively participate in green global policy dialogue.

From Commitment to Action:

Dialogue, Consensus and Implementation Across the COP31 Action Agenda

With COP31 just around the corner, the challenge is to connect formal negotiations with the priorities and lived experiences of communities on the front lines of climate change. COP31 will take place in the Turkish Riviera City of Antalya, Türkiye, from 9–20 November 2026. Turning climate commitments into measurable progress requires systems-level change, driven by innovation, investment and collaboration across actors and sectors.

Climate commitments require government leadership, but implementation depends on collective action across society. Local governments—from municipalities and city authorities to neighbourhood associations—must work alongside Indigenous peoples, residents and visitors, civil society organisations, student clubs, universities, academic research centres, think tanks, businesses, industry, entrepreneurs and financial institutions.

These actors do not replace states’ responsibilities.

They can contribute research, technology, investment, advocacy and practical expertise, helping translate public commitments into inclusive and effective action. Businesses can adapt infrastructure and supply chains; financial institutions can direct capital towards resilience; universities can generate evidence and develop skills; and civil society can help ensure that local priorities remain visible. A culture of collaboration is essential to building effective partnerships and connecting diverse expertise, resources and perspectives to deliver meaningful, lasting impact.

What This Means for the island of Cyprus

Vanuatu and Cyprus have different political, geographical and economic circumstances, and their climate vulnerabilities should not be treated as equivalent. Nevertheless, Vanuatu’s experience offers a relevant “island lens” for Cyprus: resilience depends not only on formal policy commitments, but also on the capacity of institutions and communities to work together.

Across both sides of Cyprus, higher education represents a strategically important economic sector, generating employment and professional development opportunities, generating economic activity and contributing significantly to respective GDPs. Universities, research and policy centres and think tanks are therefore well positioned to act as institutional partners in strengthening climate resilience through partnerships, research, skills development and cooperation with public and private stakeholders.

Through partnerships with student clubs and other networks, civil society, businesses and public actors, they can support climate action skills development and academic research, public awareness, disaster preparedness and policy dialogue. Such cooperation can help connect international sustainability agendas with local needs while strengthening the evidence and institutional capacity available to decision-makers. This is also an opportunity to connect climate resilience with good governance, social sustainability and peace.

Where climate pressures intersect with inequality, economic insecurity or displacement, inclusive and conflict-sensitive responses can help reduce additional stresses on communities. Cooperation does not automatically produce reconciliation, but sustained dialogue, shared evidence and practical collaboration can support social cohesion and strengthen the foundations for peaceful engagement.

In what I like to call “at the shared-island living realities" level, international partnerships can serve as a means of building local capacity through dialogue—that can also increase institutional visibility, which is especially important during the ongoing global economic crisis. Research, student engagement and collaboration with public and private stakeholders can help translate global commitments into locally relevant action.

Vanuatu’s experience shows that vulnerability does not preclude influence. Yet international recognition and legal progress must be matched by sustained finance, effective partnerships and locally grounded implementation.

States negotiate. Non-state actors influence. Partnerships build resilience.

And resilience—when inclusive, locally grounded and conflict-sensitive—strengthens human security, supports social cohesion and reinforces the foundations of lasting peace.